Joker: Folie à Deux is expected to debut with a total less than half of the original installment. The DC comic book movie, which re-teams director Todd Phillips and star Joaquin Phoenix, is a sequel to 2019’s Joker, which made over $1 billion at the worldwide box office against a roughly $70 million budget. The sequel, which features multiple musical numbers and co-stars Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn, has a price tag more than two-and-a-half times as large, as the reported Joker: Folie à Deux budget is $190 million.
Per The Hollywood Reporter, as of Saturday morning, Joker: Folie à Deux is projected to take in a three-day opening weekend total between $42 and $47 million at the domestic box office. This falls far below the initial industry projections of about $70 million. Even at the top of the projected range, it is less than half of what the original 2019 movie earned in its domestic debut, which raked in $96.2 million, making its budget back over the course of a single weekend.
What This Opening Weekend Means For Joker: Folie à Deux
The Movie Could Still Break Even
This disappointing opening weekend total is likely the result of the overwhelmingly negative reaction to the movie. In addition to Joker: Folie à Deux reviews earning the movie a 32% score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes, it has a matching 32% audience score tabulated from more than 1,000 verified users. The movie has scored poorly across the board on popular review platforms, compounding its dismal D+ CinemaScore with a 4.1 out of 10 on Meteoritic, a 5.3 out of 10 on IMDb, and a 2.5 out of 5 on Letterboxd.
This might be just enough for the movie to break even….
However, this does not necessarily mean that the movie will be a failure. While it seems unlikely to build strong word-of-mouth viewership, if it continues to grow in proportion to the original, it could eventually climb to $472 million or higher worldwide. This might be just enough for the movie to break even if it doesn’t crater in its second weekend and is buoyed by the Joker: Folie à Deux cast earning Oscar nominations in early 2025. Because movies typically need to earn back at least two-and-a-half times their budgets, its break-even point is likely somewhere around $475 million.
Our Take On The Weekend Box Office
Joker 2’s No. 1 Status Is Already Under Threat
While the schedule for the second weekend of October is largely clear of tentpole releases due to studios giving Joker: Folie à Deux room to breathe, it seems that the comic book sequel’s position at No. 1 on the chart is shaky at best. While it could still claim the top slot during its second weekend in theaters if the movies below it on the chart have similar week-on-week drops, it seems highly likely that it will be toppled from its perch by the upcoming Smile 2, a sequel to a hit which became the highest-grossing horror movie of 2022.
Source: THR
